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Nov. 4, 2009: Yesterday's victory by (Jon Corzine or Chris Christie) in New Jersey's gubernatorial election was never really in doubt. The historic political patterns and economic forces within the state were just too powerful for the other candidate to have a chance.
One other historical factor favoring the Republicans was New Jersey's practice, after the last five presidential elections, of issuing a cautionary note to the winner by selecting a governor from the
party not occupying the White House. Thus, the first chance Garden State's voters got to go to the
polls after the victories of Republicans George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush in 1988, 2000 and
2004, they gave the governorship to Democrats Jim Florio, Jim McGreevey and Corzine respectively. Similarly, New Jersey elected and re-lected Republican Whitman in 1993 and 1997 right after the
nation did the same for Democrat Bill Clinton. Why would anyone think this year was going to be
different?
Conclusion: Three final factors can't be ignored.
First, President Obama's (renewed or diminishing) popularity in New Jersey combined with Corzine's extensive campaigning (for or against) him in the (fall or spring) of 2008 made it obvious that the White House was going to be of (great or little) assistance.
Second, independent Chris Daggett, whose candidacy could have hurt (Corzine or Christie) wound up (doing exactly the opposite or having no effect).
Finally and of most significance in determining the outcome, the winning party picked the perfect candidate with extensive background and experience addressing (corruption or finance), which everyone knew would be the deciding issue in the 2009 election.
Nov. 4, 2009: Yesterday's victory by (Jon Corzine or Chris Christie) in New Jersey's gubernatorial election was never really in doubt. The historic political patterns and economic forces within the state were just too powerful for the other candidate to have a chance.
Analysis (for use if Corzine wins):
It has been clear for many years that New Jersey is now a solidly Democratic state in which Republicans simply shouldn't expect to win. The state has supported every Democratic candidate for president since 1992 and in 2008 gave Barack Obama 57 percent of the vote. No Republican has been
party not occupying the White House. Thus, the first chance Garden State's voters got to go to the
polls after the victories of Republicans George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush in 1988, 2000 and
2004, they gave the governorship to Democrats Jim Florio, Jim McGreevey and Corzine respectively. Similarly, New Jersey elected and re-lected Republican Whitman in 1993 and 1997 right after the
nation did the same for Democrat Bill Clinton. Why would anyone think this year was going to be
different?
Conclusion: Three final factors can't be ignored.
First, President Obama's (renewed or diminishing) popularity in New Jersey combined with Corzine's extensive campaigning (for or against) him in the (fall or spring) of 2008 made it obvious that the White House was going to be of (great or little) assistance.
Second, independent Chris Daggett, whose candidacy could have hurt (Corzine or Christie) wound up (doing exactly the opposite or having no effect).
Finally and of most significance in determining the outcome, the winning party picked the perfect candidate with extensive background and experience addressing (corruption or finance), which everyone knew would be the deciding issue in the 2009 election.
