NJ's New Congressional Delegation
One of the many interesting election outcomes this week is the difference between New Jersey's statewide votes and the composition of the delegation voters selected for the House of Representatives. On a day when almost 60% of the the state's voters chose President Obama (58%) and Senator Menendez (59%) over their Republican challengers, they opted for a House delegation that will be 50% Democrats and 50% Republicans.
This discrepancy is largely if not entirely due to the boundaries of the state's 12 new districts, down from 13 as a result of the national population shifts reflected in the 2010 census. While New Jersey's redistricting process is better than those in many other states, it has resulted in districts that did not mirror statewide preferences. At least this year, the state's voters would have been more accurately represented by Congressional boundaries that could have led to 7 Democratic representatives (58.31%) and 5 Republicans (41.69%).*
The Congressional map in New Jersey has also resulted in 12 districts where the incumbents are very unlikely to be defeated - at least in a general election - for the remainder of this decade. The average margin of victory for the 12 winners was 34%. The closest contest was Congressman Jon Runyon's defeat of Democratic challenger Shelly Adler by 53% to 45%. At the other end of the spectrum, New Jersey's only new member, Donald Payne Jr., beat his Republican rival Brian Keleman 87% to 11%.
The potential negative implication is that New Jersey's House members will have good reason to be more concerned about positioning themselves to avoid or counter a possible primary challenge than by any need to moderate their positions in ways that might attract more general election voters who are not of their party. On the plus side, but not likely to come close to outweighing the negative, is that the state's Congressmen all now have the opportunity to focus their energies less on fund-raising and campaigning and more on committee work and legislation in Washington and constituent service in New Jersey.
* One could argue that the boundaries for New Jersey's State Legislative Districts have the opposite flaw since in 2009 as Republican Chris Christie captured 48.8% to be elected Governor over Democrat Jon Corzine and Independent Chris Daggett, voters chose a legislature that was 58.3% Democratic with a total of 70 Democrats and 50 Republicans.
One of the many interesting election outcomes this week is the difference between New Jersey's statewide votes and the composition of the delegation voters selected for the House of Representatives. On a day when almost 60% of the the state's voters chose President Obama (58%) and Senator Menendez (59%) over their Republican challengers, they opted for a House delegation that will be 50% Democrats and 50% Republicans.
This discrepancy is largely if not entirely due to the boundaries of the state's 12 new districts, down from 13 as a result of the national population shifts reflected in the 2010 census. While New Jersey's redistricting process is better than those in many other states, it has resulted in districts that did not mirror statewide preferences. At least this year, the state's voters would have been more accurately represented by Congressional boundaries that could have led to 7 Democratic representatives (58.31%) and 5 Republicans (41.69%).*
The Congressional map in New Jersey has also resulted in 12 districts where the incumbents are very unlikely to be defeated - at least in a general election - for the remainder of this decade. The average margin of victory for the 12 winners was 34%. The closest contest was Congressman Jon Runyon's defeat of Democratic challenger Shelly Adler by 53% to 45%. At the other end of the spectrum, New Jersey's only new member, Donald Payne Jr., beat his Republican rival Brian Keleman 87% to 11%.
The potential negative implication is that New Jersey's House members will have good reason to be more concerned about positioning themselves to avoid or counter a possible primary challenge than by any need to moderate their positions in ways that might attract more general election voters who are not of their party. On the plus side, but not likely to come close to outweighing the negative, is that the state's Congressmen all now have the opportunity to focus their energies less on fund-raising and campaigning and more on committee work and legislation in Washington and constituent service in New Jersey.
* One could argue that the boundaries for New Jersey's State Legislative Districts have the opposite flaw since in 2009 as Republican Chris Christie captured 48.8% to be elected Governor over Democrat Jon Corzine and Independent Chris Daggett, voters chose a legislature that was 58.3% Democratic with a total of 70 Democrats and 50 Republicans.
